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Thank you for your feedback and enthusiasm for the year Discogs project: the best music database and marketplace in the world. After enjoying the American global economic hegemony of the s, the s brought a new high point in optimism about what discretionary manipulation of interest rates and financial markets could achieve.


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The poor record of economic forecasting is notorious, and the Fed is no exception to the rule. If only the Chairman, the Governors, the Presidents and the scores of economists of the Federal Reserve could really know the future!

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Then they could carry out their discretionary actions without the many mistakes, both deflationary and inflationary, which have marked the history of the Fed. These mistakes should not surprise us. But we [the Fed] have not been able to find them, and do not believe anyone else has either.


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  • Moreover, in my view, not even in principle can any model successfully predict the complex, recursive financial and economic future-so the Fed cannot know with certainty what the results of its own actions will be. Queen Elizabeth would later quite reasonably ask why the economists and central banks failed to see the crisis coming.

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    One lesson we can draw from this failure is that a group of limited human beings, none of whom is blessed with knowledge of the future, with all the estimates, guesses, and fundamental uncertainty involved, by being formed into a committee, cannot rationally be expected to fulfill the mystical notion that they can guarantee financial and economic stability.

    Economic historian Bernard Shull has explored the paradox that throughout its years, no matter how many mistakes the Fed makes, or how big such mistakes are, it nonetheless keeps gaining more power and prestige. It is unsurpassed in its ability to create systemic risk for everybody else through its unlimited command of the principal global fiat money, the paper dollar. Who will guard these guardians?


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    How will this massive manipulation of the government debt and mortgage markets turn out? Will it make the current Fed into a great success or become another historic blunder? In my opinion, neither the Fed nor anybody else knows-about this all of us can only guess. It is a huge and fascinating gamble, which has without doubt induced a lot of new systemic interest rate risk into the economy and remarkable concentration of interest rate risk into the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve itself.

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    In the psychology of risky situations, actions seem less risky if other people are doing the same thing. A decade ago, bankers felt a similar effect when they all were expanding mortgage debt together. This is because it is not and cannot be a science at all, because it cannot operate with determinative mathematical laws, because it cannot make reliable predictions, because it must cope with ineluctable uncertainty and an unknowable future.

    We should have no illusions, in sharp contrast to the years of illusions we have entertained, about the probability of success of such a difficult attempt, no matter how intellectually brilliant and personally impressive its practitioners may be.

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    It does seem doubtful that it can, but the question oversimplifies the problem, for the Fed has not two mandates, but six. The third statutorily assigned goal is almost always forgotten. It is doubtful indeed that the Fed can simultaneously do all three.

    But in addition to these, the Fed has three more mandates. It was still believed when the Humphrey-Hawkins Act of was passed, although it was already being falsified by the great stagflation of the late s. Humphrey-Hawkins added a wordy provision requiring the Fed to report to and discuss with Congress its plans and progress on the triple mandate.

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    Did these sessions succeed? They obviously did not avoid the financial disasters of the s and s, or the inflation of giant bubbles in tech stocks and housing. The fourth mandate stood right at the beginning of the original Federal Reserve Act in